Two of the major commercial players in the eCRM space are -- to the shock of seemingly everyone -- tying the knot with Convio buying out GetActive. (Ryan at PICnet graciously reprinted the entire announcement message.) Quite a psychedelic life arc for GetActive, from the petrie dish at Environmental Defense to commercial standalone with a progressive rep to acquisition by the company that provoked a blogswarm by signing on anti-gay groups.

Funny, in last month's scorecard of the 2006 tech predictions, Phil at CompuMentor got dinged for forecasting "a shakeout in the nonprofit ASP field, including mergers and acquisitions." Missed that one by 17 days.

This is going to significantly alter the playing field for nonprofits. With the last member of the Big Three, Kintera, perpetually in the red, it's quite possible this is going to leave ConActive as the last commercial titan standing -- perhaps facing off with Blackbaud as it ramps into e-CRM.

However it goes down, the dynamics and consequences are going to be far-reaching. And though we're somewhat biased, it's good occasion to consider alternatives. Why?

• GetActive clients now have to learn a new toolset, whether they would or no ... so that particular pain point of transition is a nonissue.
  
• The challenges of integrating across systems will make the switchover a bumpy ride, virtually by definition.
  
• Convio has been, for the most part, a higher-end player than GetActive, with GetActive a less-expensive commercial alternative. Under even less competitive pressure, one has to think fees stand to increase in general -- though when that happens and whether that's specifically the case for any particular organization or sector of the market still remains to be seen.

Over on the Nonprofit Tech Blog, though, Allan Benamer points out one possible immediate consequence: they're already intimating they may charge clients for the involuntary switchover. Their release also doesn't make a clear commitment to free trainings on the new system, instead saying that "[s]everal training options will continue to be available, some free and some for a fee." Clients are nervous.

There's a client call next week -- not being clients, I don't suppose we'll be on it -- where they'll have more to say about what lies ahead, and no doubt address some of the cyber-chatter. Undoubtedly, we're only scratching the surface of the implications this move is going to have.

Hold onto your hats.

Update: GetActive forswears forced migration fees except in "atypical scenarios".