"[August 22, 2006] might well be deemed [by Iran] an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world." -Princeton Orientalist Bernard Lewis

Not an exact science, the prophecy business. This time last year, NTEN asked would-be seers of the NPTech Black Arts School (est. 1987) to scry out 2006. How'd they do?

I'll be grading them according to the following completely arbitrary criteria:

+6 to +10 accurate specific-data prediction (e.g., "50% of NGOs will ..."), depending on degree of specificity and boldness of the prediction
+3 to +5 specific-data prediction gets the trend right even if it gets the numbers wrong (we're encouraging risk-taking predictions here), depending on how close it comes
+1 to +3 accurate "trend" prediction, depending on how accurate and important the trend, and how bold the prediction
-1 to -3 wrong "trend" prediction
-3 to -5 wrong specific-data prediction
0 every prediction so hedged or overcautious that it would have been virtually impossible to falsify

I've taken a fairly strong line against hedges with the idea that only predictions that could actually be wrong are worth anything when they're right. However, those rulings, and my general bloviating, are obviously of no particular authority and certainly haven't been checked for internal consistency, so disputation is not only welcome, it's invited. And most of all, don't take the regime of points to indicate anything more meaningful than a diversion. Some of the most interesting predictions here are the ones that didn't quite happen.

Now ... to the scoreboard.

Nick Allen, Donordigital